China's Hot-Rolled Steel Bars and Rods Market to Grow at a CAGR of +2.7% through 2035 - News and Statistics - IndexBox

Mar 11, 2025

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IndexBox has just published a new report: China - Hot-Rolled Steel Bars and Rods - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The demand for hot-rolled steel bars and rods in China is on the rise, with market performance expected to continue growing at a CAGR of +2.7% in volume and +4.2% in value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market volume is projected to reach 938 million tons, with a market value of $830.4 billion (in nominal wholesale prices).

Driven by increasing demand for hot-rolled steel bars and rods in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.7% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 938M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $830.4B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

In 2024, approx. 699M tons of hot-rolled steel bars and rods were consumed in China; growing by 1.6% on the previous year. Over the period under review, the total consumption indicated temperate growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, consumption decreased by -2.7% against 2022 indices. Hot-rolled steel bar and rod consumption peaked at 719M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The size of the market for hot-rolled steel bars and rods in China stood at $525.5B in 2024, growing by 3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption posted a resilient increase. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $546.8B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2024, approx. 711M tons of hot-rolled steel bars and rods were produced in China; picking up by 1.9% against the previous year. In general, the total production indicated pronounced growth from 2013 to 2024: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, production decreased by -1.9% against 2022 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 8% against the previous year. Hot-rolled steel bar and rod production peaked at 724M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, hot-rolled steel bar and rod production reached $554.3B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production enjoyed resilient growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 when the production volume increased by 53%. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level at $573.9B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In 2024, purchases abroad of hot-rolled steel bars and rods decreased by -12% to 491K tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. In general, imports showed a abrupt curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 201%. Imports peaked at 3.2M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, hot-rolled steel bar and rod imports dropped to $843M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports saw a perceptible shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 64%. Imports peaked at $2.8B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In 2024, Japan (235K tons) constituted the largest supplier of hot-rolled steel bar and rod to China, accounting for a 48% share of total imports. Moreover, hot-rolled steel bar and rod imports from Japan exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, South Korea (90K tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Taiwan (Chinese) (52K tons), with an 11% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Japan stood at -6.7%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: South Korea (-3.4% per year) and Taiwan (Chinese) (-5.2% per year).

In value terms, Japan ($361M) constituted the largest supplier of hot-rolled steel bars and rods to China, comprising 43% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Taiwan (Chinese) ($142M), with a 17% share of total imports. It was followed by South Korea, with a 13% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value from Japan stood at -4.2%. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Taiwan (Chinese) (+2.1% per year) and South Korea (-2.5% per year).

Steel, alloy; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (155K tons), hot-rolled bars in bearing steels (101K tons) and iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (95K tons) were the main products of hot-rolled steel bar and rod imports to China, together accounting for 71% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for steel, alloy; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (with a CAGR of +0.0%), while purchases for the other products experienced a decline.

In value terms, steel, alloy; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils ($204M), hot-rolled wire rod in coil of stainless steel ($190M) and hot-rolled bars in bearing steels ($178M) were the most imported types of hot-rolled steel bars and rods in China, with a combined 67% share of total imports. Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, hot-rolled round bars of stainless steel, iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling and steel, stainless lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

Among the main product categories, hot-rolled round bars of stainless steel, with a CAGR of +2.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average import price for hot-rolled steel bars and rods stood at $1,718 per ton in 2024, which is down by -1.7% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, continues to indicate temperate growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $1,747 per ton in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was hot-rolled round bars of stainless steel ($8,136 per ton), while the price for iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling ($802 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by hot-rolled round stainless steel (+4.1%), while the prices for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average import price for hot-rolled steel bars and rods stood at $1,718 per ton in 2024, declining by -1.7% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw notable growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 59% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $1,747 per ton in 2023, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Sweden ($4,527 per ton), while the price for Malaysia ($657 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Taiwan (Chinese) (+7.6%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2024, exports of hot-rolled steel bars and rods from China skyrocketed to 12M tons, picking up by 20% on 2023. In general, exports, however, showed a perceptible contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 81% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at 43M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, hot-rolled steel bar and rod exports expanded slightly to $7.4B in 2024. Over the period under review, exports, however, continue to indicate a perceptible reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 65%. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $15.6B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

South Korea (1.4M tons), Thailand (882K tons) and Vietnam (741K tons) were the main destinations of hot-rolled steel bar and rod exports from China, with a combined 25% share of total exports. Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru, Mongolia, Singapore, Chile, Malaysia, India and Myanmar lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Mongolia (with a CAGR of +5.8%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, South Korea ($889M), Thailand ($542M) and Vietnam ($492M) appeared to be the largest markets for hot-rolled steel bar and rod exported from China worldwide, with a combined 26% share of total exports. Indonesia, Hong Kong SAR, the Philippines, Peru, Chile, Malaysia, Mongolia, Singapore, India and Myanmar lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Among the main countries of destination, Chile, with a CAGR of +5.8%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (4.9M tons), iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling (4.1M tons) and hot-rolled bars in bearing steels (2.3M tons) were the main products of hot-rolled steel bar and rod exports from China, together comprising 87% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the major product types, was attained by iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils (with a CAGR of +51.2%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils ($2.6B), iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, not further worked than forged, hot-rolled, hot drawn or hot-extruded, but including those twisted after rolling ($2.3B) and hot-rolled bars in bearing steels ($1.7B) constituted the most exported types of hot-rolled steel bars and rods from China worldwide, together comprising 85% of total exports.

Iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, with a CAGR of +47.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, among the main product categories over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

The average export price for hot-rolled steel bars and rods stood at $607 per ton in 2024, which is down by -12.9% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average export price increased by 135% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $959 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major types of exported product. In 2024, the product with the highest price was hot-rolled round bars of stainless steel ($2,593 per ton), while the average price for exports of iron or non-alloy steel; bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils ($527 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: hot-rolled bearing steel bar (+2.3%), while the prices for the other products experienced mixed trend patterns.

The average export price for hot-rolled steel bars and rods stood at $607 per ton in 2024, reducing by -12.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the average export price increased by 135% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $959 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major external markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was India ($775 per ton), while the average price for exports to Mongolia ($493 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to India (+1.4%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the market for hot-rolled steel bar and rod in China. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2030.

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:

While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

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The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

The Largest Import Supplying Countries

The Largest Destinations for Exports

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles